Ocean Freight Volatility

Peak Season and the Impact of 2025 Tariffs

Ocean freight rates have seen dramatic swings in 2025, doubling in May before dropping below May levels by July, per the Drewry World Container Index. With peak season looming in August, what can shippers expect? Will there be a peak season? What will rates do in the next three months? Will General Rate Increases (GRIs) accompany peak season amid tariffs? How are retailers adapting to tariffs and lower demand? CPC Consultants analyzes these trends, offering innovative procurement strategies to stabilize costs and create a simplified and stable costing method.

Will There Be a Peak Season?

An early peak season occurred in May 2025, driven by a 275% surge in ocean bookings as shippers frontloaded imports to avoid U.S. tariffs (e.g., 145% on Chinese goods, later reduced to 30% for 90 days). Demand cooled post-June, with volumes projected to drop 5.7% in August, per the National Retail Federation, suggesting a subdued traditional peak season. Overcapacity (8% global vessel capacity increase in 2025) and blank sailings may limit volume spikes and cancelling a robust peak season.

Ocean Freight Rates Crystal Ball Predictions for the Next Three Months

Rates are expected to remain volatile through October 2025, with a downward trend. Trans-Pacific rates, now at $2,462/FEU (West Coast) and $3,520/FEU (East Coast), are 40% below 2024 peaks but double pre-pandemic levels. Carriers’ GRIs of $1,000-$2,000/TEU may push rates up 10-15% in August, but soften demand and adding capacity could cap increases, per Xeneta. Port congestion in Asia (14–21-day delays) may cause short-term spikes but is highly unlikely.

Peak Season and GRIs with Tariffs

New GRIs are planned for August, but their success is uncertain. Carriers’ March GRI attempts fell short by $800/FEU due to overcapacity and weak demand. Tariffs (like 25% on Canadian steel) continue to disrupt planning, but frontloading has neutralized much of the anticipated Q3 demand surge. A muted peak season with partial GRI adherence (5-10% rate hikes) is likely, as carriers balance capacity – utilization and fierce competition.

Retailers’ Buying Behavior

Retailers, wary of tariffs and lower consumer demand, frontloaded inventories in Q2, boosting U.S. import volumes 12% from November 2024 to February 2025. With warehouses stocked, many are pausing shipments or diversifying sourcing to Mexico and Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff costs. E-commerce demand (like Temu, Shein) sustains some volume, but cautious restocking reflects a 48% drop in bookings since May, per Freightos.

Shippers/Importers will see lower Ocean Freight rates this year, more so than the previous five years. It’s important to secure capacity, lock-in contract rates and ensure service at the lower rates. CPC Consultants with its simplified stable costing method can be your tool to save 30% on average while mitigating volatility and avoiding risks.

Contact CPC Consultants today for a free assessment and more information.The post Ocean Freight Volatility first appeared on Transportation, Shipping, Supply Chain, Freight Consultants.
Source: CPC Consultants, LLC