This month brought a chilling twist to what’s normally the hottest time in freight. Instead of a seasonal surge, the market slipped into an “anti-peak” pattern — revealing early signs of a freight recession driven by front-loaded inventories, tariff shocks, and fading consumer demand.
- Transportation Utilization: 50.0 — lowest September reading in LMI history (23% below the 8-year average)
- Transportation Capacity: 55.1, exceeding Transportation Prices (54.2) for the second month in a row — a “negative freight inversion” that has historically predicted major downturns
- Inventory Costs: 75.5, as goods sit idle and warehouses groan under the weight of early imports
- Holiday Spending: Forecast down 5% YoY, marking the weakest Q4 outlook since 2009
Across the industry, structural changes are haunting traditional patterns. Manufacturers are slowing, retailers are cautious, and import volumes have plunged, the sharpest decline since the 2023 freight recession.
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